As the final week of campaigning, the race for the "Big First District", the area covering Western Kansas, is a big question mark.
According to our exclusive Fact Finder 12 Scientific Survey, it's a three-way tie at 24 percent for State Senator Jim Barnett, State Senator Tim Huelskamp and Realtor Tracey Mann.
Seven percent are still undecided.
------------------------------------
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 Kansas adults 07/24/10 through 07/26/10. Of them, 1,419 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 526 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 08/03/10 Republican Primary. Advance voting began 07/14/10. The Primary is 08/03/10.
(Candidate names rotated during survey, displayed below alphabetically)
- 24% Barnett
- 7% Boldra
- 2% Cobb
- 24% Huelskamp
- 24% Mann
- 12% Wasinger
- 7% Undecided
Complete Interactive Crosstabs
------------------------------------
Their numbers may be the same, but here's where its gets different, broken down by support from moderates versus conservatives.Huelskamp has the most support of conservative Republicans and trails with moderates. Mann and Barnett have similar support from both groups.
Here's another place Senator Barnett may have an advantage. He's in the lead when it comes to advance voters. 38 percent of people who said they would vote for Barnett already have.
Political experts offer a few reasons this race is so tight. For one it's a crowded field, with six Republicans running. Many of the candidates are unknown, so it is possible they don't have strong name recognition with voters. Experts say there's not much the candidates can do in the last week, other than get as many of their supporters to the polls as possible.
Tracey Mann has been in the news most recently after comments he made during a radio news interview about President Obama's citizenship. The survey was taken after that controversy. It didn't affect his polling numbers.
